Tulani Ngwenya
PRETORIA, South Africa – A new study paints a grim picture of Africa’s elephant populations, revealing a devastating decline over the past half-century. Savannah elephants have suffered a 70% decrease, while forest elephants have seen a staggering 90% reduction in numbers.
The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analysed data from 475 sites across 37 African countries. While certain regions, like southern Africa, have witnessed population growth due to effective conservation strategies, the overall trend is deeply alarming.
“The loss of large mammals is a significant ecological issue for Africa and the planet,” said Dr Dave Balfour, a research associate at Nelson Mandela University.
The primary culprits behind this decline are well-documented: relentless poaching fueled by the illegal ivory trade, primarily driven by demand in Asia, and the relentless encroachment of human activities, particularly agricultural expansion, which fragments and destroys vital elephant habitats.
George Wittemyer, a wildlife conservation professor at Colorado State University and chair of the scientific board at Save the Elephants, who co-led the study, expressed deep concern. “A lot of the lost populations won’t return, and many low-density populations are under constant pressure. It’s likely we will continue to lose populations in the future,” he warned.
Forest elephants, which constitute only about a third of the savanna elephant population, have been disproportionately affected by poaching across most of their range in Africa. Wittemyer highlighted the severe impact in regions like the northern Sahel, where high poaching pressure and weak protection have led to the complete extinction of elephant populations.
In contrast, southern Africa has experienced some success stories. Countries like Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Namibia have witnessed a 42% increase in elephant populations at surveyed sites. This positive trend is largely attributed to robust conservation efforts and active management by governments and conservation organizations.
“In places where populations are increasing, there has been proactive stewardship, showing that conservation efforts can work,” said Wittemyer.
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While the study did not provide a continent-wide population estimate due to varying methodologies across surveys, separate conservation estimates place the total number of African elephants at around 415,000 as of 2016.
The future of African elephants remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: urgent action is needed to protect these iconic species and safeguard their vital role in ecosystems. As Dr. Balfour stressed saying that, “We need to learn from where we’ve had successes and continue to apply those lessons to safeguard the future of elephants.”
