Tulani Ngwenya
Maputo, Mozambique – The southern African nation has emerged as a hotspot for jihadist activity in Southern Africa, with the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province creating profound humanitarian and security challenges. Rooted in a volatile mix of poverty, inequality, and religious extremism, the conflict continues to undermine stability in the region.
The origins and escalation of the insurgency
The jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado began in 2017 with the emergence of Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’ah (ASWJ), also locally referred to as al-Shabaab (unrelated to the Somali group). The group’s allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) in 2019 marked a turning point, as it rebranded as Islamic State Mozambique (ISM). ISM has since engaged in widespread violence, including beheadings, mass killings, and the destruction of infrastructure.
“The group’s tactics have been brutal, and the insurgency has devastated the region, leading to mass displacement, economic disruption, and a severe humanitarian crisis,” explains Dr Alex Vines, Head of the Africa Programme at Chatham House.
Regional implications and security concerns on the back of insurgency
The insurgency has significant implications for Mozambique’s neighbors. Porous borders and regional extremist networks raise concerns about the spread of terrorism. South Africa, in particular, has been identified as a critical node in funding and logistical support for ISM.
“South Africa’s financial system has been exploited to fund terrorist activities,” Dr. Vines notes. This underscores the urgent need for regional cooperation and stricter oversight of financial flows.
In addition, the insurgency has attracted international concern due to its proximity to vast natural gas reserves in Cabo Delgado, a region vital to Mozambique’s economy. Militant attacks have repeatedly targeted these projects, threatening their viability and the government’s economic recovery plans.
Responses to insurgency and challenges
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda have deployed troops to assist Mozambique’s military. These interventions have reclaimed some territory but have not eradicated the insurgency.
“The insurgents have shifted to guerrilla tactics, including ambushes and attacks on remote villages,” Dr. Vines says. “This adaptability, coupled with external support, poses ongoing challenges.”
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Despite some military gains, analysts caution that the root causes of the conflict economic deprivation, ethnic tensions, and government neglect remain unaddressed. Reports by the Middle East Africa Research Institute (MEARI) highlight decades of underinvestment in Cabo Delgado, which has left its predominantly Mwani and Makua populations resentful of the dominance of the Maconde ethnic elite, to which President Filipe Nyusi belongs.
Looking ahead – life beyond insurgency
While the insurgency’s intensity has declined in recent months, the conflict remains a pressing concern. International partners have called for a comprehensive strategy combining military efforts with socio-economic development to address the underlying grievances fuelling the violence.
MEARI’s 2024 report also warns of South Africa’s vulnerability to extremist exploitation, citing its financial system as a major hub for Islamic State funding in Africa. This revelation has raised alarms about the broader regional implications of the Mozambican insurgency and the need for robust counter-terrorism measures across Southern Africa.
The international community must bolster Mozambique’s capacity to combat terrorism and foster development in its northern regions. Collaborative efforts between regional governments, international organisations, and private stakeholders can help restore peace and stability, ensuring that the people of Cabo Delgado benefit from the region’s natural wealth.
